What happens to social media in a recession?

I'm in two minds about what happens to marketing communications' spend in a recession:

1. Companies stick to tried and tested mainstream strategies e.g. TV, print and outdoor, but cut back on the amount they do.
2. Or, they spend their hard earned cash on something that is utterly measurable and controllable e.g. Pay Per Click, search, online display ads.

With option one, you are unlikely to get fired for doing what has always worked. However, when things are tight and customers aren't spending as freely, your traditional campaign needs to be pretty darn good to get people's attention and subsequently their wallets. So, you could argue, doing the same as you've always done will give poorer returns in a recession. Which might not be good. 

Which leaves option 2. It makes perfect sense to spend your marketing cash on a strategy that has a high degree of control and measurability e.g. PPC.

Alternatively, and not to appear too schizophrenic with three minds on the subject, you can talk to your customers where they hang out and retain some of the measurability [but very little of the control]. By this I mean social media.    

OK, 'social media is great in a recession, says social media bloke' is hardly a 'by Jove, he's got it!' moment. But, there were two facts I saw recently that made me think, social media could get a lot more attention in a recession:

1.  I saw that Jeremiah Oywang at Forrester had posted about the adoption of social media being on the increase. In the US, 75% of online adults can now be reached through social media. He even had a graph.

2. The other was a report by Technorati that blogging had become mainstream.

[The third, but probably not as strong, was my mum asking me what is a good blog to read].

Call me Taggart, but it seems to me that 

a) more and more people are using social media than ever before

b) people in a recession get more skeptical of marketing messages and so turn to real people for buying information

c) the majority of social media is online and so it is easier [slightly] to measure

d) the brands that do something innovative will stand out and so are more likely to get a larger share of wallet.

So, to answer the question, I think social media will get a lot more attention in the next few months as brands look for innovative ways to reach their audiences. However, only the brands that do it in an authentic, transparent, honest way will be successful.